Qatar crisis and Turkey's risky game

Military parade in Qatar

The crisis in the Gulf region is about to evolve further after some Arab states under the leadership of Saudi Arabia in the past month have put Qatar under economic and political blockade.

The deadline for Qatar's 13-item request list to be fulfilled was extended to Tuesday, and Qatar Foreign Minister Mohammad bin Abdulrahman al-Tani conveyed his country's response to the request to Kuwait, which played a mediating role on Monday. Qatar signaled that he would not bow to requests.

The list of items on the list includes such things as the closure of the Doha-based news network Al Jazeera, the withdrawal of relations with Iran, the closure of Turkey's already established base and the return of its troops.

Turkey, which has supported Qatar strongly since the beginning of the crisis, has also been summoned for reconciliation with Suudi. On June 22, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Saudi King Selman on the phone and informed them that they wanted the issue to be solved peacefully.

 

Qatar Emiri El Tani and Turkish President Erdogan

However, one day after this meeting, the Turkish side disgusted the dissatisfaction with the announcement of the list of demands, including the closure of Turkey's military base.

Following the demands, Defense Minister Fikri Işık said that the ongoing military deal with Qatar will not be considered.

Erdogan likewise criticized the 13-item demand list as "we are against the international law because he can not have such an attack on the sovereign rights of countries in inter-state law."

Regional dimension

Although the blockade under the leadership of Saudi Arabia targets Qatar, the demands of Turkey and Iran have added a regional dimension to the demand.

According to political scientist Serhat Erkmen, there is a continuing power struggle in the region and the ongoing crisis since the beginning of June is a reflection of this struggle.

"None of the powers in the Middle East have the capacity to solve the problems in the field ... That is why both regional and foreign powers are in a struggle for power in the Middle East and we have to see the Qatar issue at this point," Erkmen answered DW Turk's questions.

Turkey blocked a possible occupation of Qatar?

Turkey was both economically, politically, and militarily (or symbolically) militant to Qatari's help. However, according to analysts, this type of support is likely to have consequences.

According to Al Sharq Forum Research Director Galip Dalay, who spoke in Turkish, "Turkey has lost the chance to play a third-party role in mediating or crisis-resilience by sending troops to Qatar."

However, according to some observers, Turkey's support to Qatar has prevented an occupation that could be organized against this country or a coup against the current Qatar administration.

According to Wadah Khanfar, the former General Manager of Al Jazeera, the crisis could have reached even more dangerous proportions if Turkey had not intervened.

Khanfar said, "This means that we can witness a kind of military intervention and add a new battleground to the region where many battles are still going on."

Khanfar said that Turkey's sending troops to Qatar created an alternative lane for the solution of the crisis, although it was too early to comment on what would or could not happen.

"The pledge of Turkey to send troops to Qatar prevented a climb that could lead to war in the crisis and opened a new dialogue channel for negotiations," said General Manager of Al Jazeera.

However, not all analysts agree that Saudi Arabia goes so far as to occupy this natural gas richness into the small Gulf country. Director of Conflict and Humanitarian Affairs at the Doha Institute said Sultan Barakat doubted the realism of the occupation option.

Speaking to DW Turkish, Barakat said, "The Gulf was the scene of events that still preserved their freshness as the example of Iraq occupying Kuwait." The director added that Saudi Arabia, who sent troops to Bahrain in the Arab Spring and suppressed the rebellion, added that an occupation in Qatar could not be evaluated in the same way.

However, according to Barakat, if there is a military operation against Qatar, Turkey will not take it.

What's next for Turkey?

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt meet in Cairo on Wednesday to assess how they will take the next steps in the crisis. According to Dalay, this crisis also has the possibility that "the Gulf will become a new normal".

Qatar's sanctioning decision was taken after US President Trump's visit to Riyadh

Dalay "The polarized structure of the Gulf in this way may seem to us as an anomaly at this point, but the anomaly ahead will turn into a normal."

Turkey and Qatar have developed close relations in the past decade. In addition to deepening economic ties, perhaps the most important is that both sides are constantly in mutual symbolic gestures.

Qatar has opened a branch in Turkey of Al Jazeera in Turkey and made internet news reporting for more than three years until closing a few months ago. Khanfar noted that the Turkish news story was closed for financial reasons by Qatar, just like his brother in the US.

Moreover, one of the first support messages to Turkey and Erdogan came from Qatar Emiri after the unsuccessful coup attempt on July 15th.

In the face of these, Turkey has not refrained from supporting Qatar since the beginning of the blockade. Since the outbreak of the crisis in Qatar, which imports more than 70 percent of its food needs from abroad, Turkey has sent more than 100 aircraft and a ship carrying more than 4 thousand food items during the past days.

According to Khanfar, what Turkey has been doing since the beginning of the crisis coincided with the interests of the region at the same time. Saudi Arabia, the two major powers other than Turkey in the region, and General Manager of Old Al Jazeera, who is on the brink of Iran, believes that these three states should find a balance when the Middle East is being reshaped.

Khanfar said, "The past few weeks can be summed up as an attempt by Saudi Arabia to reshape the region without a consensus with Turkey and Iran."

"If Turkey is silent about what happened to Qatar, it will mean sacrificing sacrifices to come out of economic issues," he added.

However, the possibility of war continues. Turkey's weight in the crisis has created an alternative lane against the governments of the Saudi leadership, but it is unclear what Turkey will do if it decides to escalate the crisis.

According to Dalay, the climb of the crisis, even a military intervention in Qatar, Turkey's most wanted to avoid the scenario.

"Turkey wants to play a partial deterrent role there, but it wants to play the role of deterrence without being tested in the real world," Dalay said.

Considering that there is no clear policy on how Turkey will respond if there is a military intervention, Dalay said, "Because of the presence of the military, and having a partial share in the security of Qatar, Turkey, if a military intervention is inevitably one side of this attack It looks like it will happen. "